U.S. Treasury Bonds

Eröffnet von chaimkoch im Board Geldmarkt und Zinsen - Bund, Bobl, Schatz, T-Bonds

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#100: 22.02.2019 08:34 nicco
Short mit SL ca. 147,2

The Daily Sentiment Index in % BULLS as of February 20th (Wednesday's Close)
T-Bonds 75.0 76.2 75.3 73.1
#99: 02.02.2019 11:36 nicco
Ein Short Kandidat

Sovereign debt, corporate debt and consumer debt are all at all-time highs.

The US government has $22 trillion of debt and is running $1 trillion+ deficits every year. There’s a record $15 trillion of corporate debt. And the US consumer has racked up around $4 trillion of debt (not including mortgages).

And you don’t have to take my word for it that this is all going to end badly…

Last week, one of the most respected hedge fund managers in the world came out with a warning scarier than anything we could have dreamed of.

Seth Klarman runs the $28 billion hedge fund, Baupost Group. The guy is famously secretive (and conservative). So the fact that he went out of his way to make this public statement means you should pay attention.

Also, Klarman’s fund is closed (he’s actually been returning money), so he’s not doing this to scare people into investing in his fund.

In a 22-page letter to his investors, Klarman warned that government debt levels, particularly in the US (where debt exceeds GDP), could lead to the next global financial crisis.

“The seeds of the next major financial crisis (or the one after that) may well be found in today’s sovereign debt levels,” he wrote.

In addition to debt levels, Klarman is worried about the increasing social unrest (something we’ve written about in detail) and the public’s inability to decipher who is telling the truth these days between politicians and the media… both of which make it difficult for a capitalist system to thrive.

Who knows what will ultimately bring the system crashing down, but let’s focus on the US government’s exploding deficits…

In 2018, the federal government’s deficit hit $1 trillion. But these are “good times,” with soaring asset prices, solid corporate profits and record-low unemployment.

What happens when a recession inevitably occurs. Our friend Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, says the deficit will blow out to $2 trillion.

So, $22 trillion in the whole and a $1 trillion deficit in a good year. Not to mention, interest rates are rising, which means all of this debt is just getting more expensive.

Eventually, people will simply refuse to lend Uncle Sam any more money… because they know there’s no way they’ll be repaid.

#98: 17.11.2018 10:19 nicco
T-Notes sehen besser aus..
#97: 12.11.2018 23:02 nicco
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T Bond Future Realtime 138,5
TLT Wochenchart
#96: 10.11.2018 09:44 nicco
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Bodenbildung, erste Position Long mit SL bei ca. 136,25
#95: 03.11.2018 13:28 nicco
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Verkaufssignal bei den Notes, Short bei den T-Bonds unter dem unteren BB.
Der ETF TLT ist schwächer als der IEF
Mögliches Ziel bei dem ETF TLT
#94: 27.10.2018 09:12 nicco
Bond Bear Short Squeeze Accelerates As Traders Dump Inflation Bets

Long mit SL bei ca. 118,45
#93: 11.10.2018 09:06 nicco
Die Spekulanten sind extrem short bei den T-Notes...
#92: 10.10.2018 09:40 nicco
Starker Widerstand im Wochenchart
Trendwende möglich
#91: 17.06.2018 12:37 nicco
Bodenbildung, für eine Longposition fehlt mir die Stärke.
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